The War in Gaza: The Anti-War Movement, the Netanyahu/Hamas Dynamic, and the 2024 U.S. Election

By Virgilio O Aran

Images of healthcare workers in Gaza killed in Israeli attacks, 25 November 2023. Source: Wikipedia under Creative Commons license.

It is often assumed that history repeats itself, and we strive to glean insights from past events to inform our actions and decisions in the future. Since the conclusion of last year, we have borne witness not only to the indiscriminate bombing of civilian populations but also to the tragic loss of innocent lives, predominantly among civilians. Technology, a revived movement for social justice in the context of the Gaza conflict, and the potential to sway the 2024 U.S. election have all played pivotal roles. Ultimately, it's tacitly understood by most involved parties, including ourselves, that the continuation of the Gaza war will be contingent upon the extent to which various stakeholders can influence the U.S. election.

The War in Gaza has brought to us the reality of war to our own eyes, transforming for many the way that we see war. It is not the first time this phenomenon has happened nor is it the only conflict happening now. Still, it is the first time in many decades that war has agitated the masses in such a way that it becomes a catalyst of the anti-war movement we have not seen in the U.S. since the war of Vietnam. It is not just the size of the demonstration but the energy and camaraderie among those who have participated. 

The Israeli government has decimated Gaza, where 90 percent of the houses are destroyed, with a high number of casualties, a majority of women and children. The article “Gaza death toll: How many Palestinians has Israel's Campaign Killed?” from tThe news outlet Reuters, underscores that according to the Palestinian health authorities, "Israel's ground and air campaign in Gaza has killed more than 39,000 people, mostly civilians, and driven most of the enclave's 2.3 million people from their homes" (July 25, 2024). The numbers are astonishing, especially when you take into account the number of people who will have permanent physical and mental disability as a result of the war. The condemnation of the action of Israel has been quite open, including the top U.N. Court. “The article Top U.N. Court Says Israel's Presence in Occupied Palestinian Territories is Illegal and Should End" by Mike Corder states, “the decision of the U.N. Court that Israel's presence in the occupied Palestinian territories is unlawful and calls for it to end and for settlement construction to stop immediately, issuing an unprecedented, sweeping condemnation of Israel's rule over the lands it captured 57 years ago (July 19, 2024).” But even despite all of the international condemnation and rallies across the planet, including in Israel, demanding an immediate ceasefire, the war in Gaza does not seem to have an  end near. The question is why when all evidence indisputably condemns the current government of Israel of war crimes?

The ongoing conflict in Gaza has brought the harsh reality of war to the forefront, affecting the way many perceive war. While this is not the first time such a phenomenon has occurred, it's the first time in many decades that war has galvanized the masses and sparked an anti-war movement reminiscent of the Vietnam War era in the U.S. The impact is not just in the size of the demonstrations but also in the energy and camaraderie among the participants.

The War: The Stakeholders

The Israeli government's campaign has ravaged Gaza, resulting in the destruction of 90 percent of the houses and a high number of casualties, especially among women and children. According to Palestinian health authorities cited by Reuters, Israel's ground and air campaign in Gaza has led to the deaths of over 39,000 people (an estimate as many others are still under the rubble unidentified and unaccounted for), mostly civilians, and forced the displacement of the majority of the enclave's 2.3 million residents from their homes (dated July 25, 2024). The scale of the humanitarian crisis is staggering, with numerous individuals facing permanent physical and mental disabilities as a consequence of the conflict.

International condemnation of Israel's actions has been widespread, including a landmark ruling by the top U.N. Court. An article by Mike Corder reports that, “the U.N. Court has declared Israel's presence in the occupied Palestinian territories illegal and has called for its immediate cessation, along with an end to settlement construction, issuing an unprecedented and all-encompassing condemnation of Israel's rule over the lands it seized 57 years ago (dated July 19, 2024).”

Despite the global outcry and calls for an immediate ceasefire, the conflict in Gaza shows no sign of abating. The troubling question remains: Why does the war in Gaza persist despite overwhelming evidence condemning the Israeli government for war crimes? This is where stakeholders must have a clear, articulated strategy to achieve their objectives. Each stakeholder involved, including the mass anti-war movement, is positioned in this chess war to gain the upper hand. 

The Anti-War Movement

The anti-war movement, diverse in nature and objectives, has a clear short-term objective: the ceasefire. The call for a ceasefire where people are dying every day seems just and proper, given the inhumane situation Palestinians in Gaza are living through. However, this call to stop the war has met real opposition in the hall of power or where power matters: Washington, in the United and Tel Aviv, in Israel. In the case of the United States, the current president has been willing to divide its coalition, which allowed him to win the presidency in 2020. Progressives, Democrats, and a critical segment of the Palestinian-Americans and muslims decided that in 2024, Biden did not deserve their vote. For the anti-war movement, the ceasefire was the most immediate goal. To achieve this goal, they have used different tactics from direct actions such as civil disobedience, weekly protests across the country, and social media action, including disseminating videos, teach-ins, and others. However, at the core, the strategy is a political strategy to influence the behavior of the party in power, in this case, the Democrats. To execute this strategy, the anti-war movement launched a political campaign of the non-commitment vote during the primary  elections of the Democratic Party across the U.S., especially in battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, where the November election will be close. The objective is to change the president's behavior, so that  Biden  exerts more pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu. While some of the leftists in the anti-war movement are opposed in ideology to this strategy, it is clear that part of the calculus behind it is to use some leverage of the Democratic primaries to achieve the ceasefire. With the dropout of Biden from the presidential race and the  nomination of Vice-President Kamala Harris for President, some momentum can be achieved if the anti-war movement is strategic.

The Israeli State and Prime Minister Netanyahu

The other stakeholders in this context are the state of Israel with Prime Minister Netanyahu as its most visible representative. Before  Hamas carried out the terrorist attack against Israel on October 7th, the Israeli government, headed by Prime Minister Netanyahu, was in a precarious position. They were facing legal challenges and social unrest that could have led to imprisonment. However, October 7 provided Netanyahu and his government with the crucial opportunity they needed to maintain their grip on power. Netanyahu, akin to the main character in Machiavelli's "The Prince," strategically leveraged the Hamas attack to rally the Israeli populace behind his leadership. Consequently, the fate of Netanyahu's political career has since been intricately linked to the continuous conflict in Gaza. Moreover, the conflict in Gaza served to strengthen the right-wing faction within Netanyahu's government coalition, which staunchly advocated for a hardline approach towards the Palestinian territories and sought to establish firm Israeli governance over Gaza.

This conflict in Gaza also underscored Israel's substantial economic, political, and military dependency on the United States. Without the financial, military, logistical, and political support from the United States, Israel would have been unable to engage in the conflict in Gaza. An article entitled "U.S. Aid to Israel in Four Charts," authored by Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow and published in the Council on Foreign Relations highlighted that, "since the outset of Israel's conflict with Hamas on October 7, 2023, the United States has enacted legislation providing a minimum of $12.5 billion in military aid to Israel, which encompasses $3.8 billion from a bill in March 2024 (in line with the current Memorandum of Understanding) and $8.7 billion from a supplemental appropriations act in April 2024" (July 31, 2024).

The United States: The Enabler

Alongside economic assistance, the United States has also extended political support to Israel in global forums, particularly within the United Nations, including the U.N. Security Council and other international bodies. The United States played a pivotal role in safeguarding Israel's security, notably during Iran's attempted assault on Israel in the spring of that year as retaliation for an Israeli offensive against Iran. The coordinated efforts of the U.S. military with other nations successfully intercepted the drones deployed by Iran to attack Israel. It is evident that the Netanyahu government regards the United States as a crucial partner for Israel's capacity to pursue the conflict and for the Prime Minister to sustain his political power. Retaining U.S. support is vital to Israel's strategic objectives, which revolve around influencing the U.S. president, Congress, public sentiment, and the subsequent U.S. presidential administration.

The state of Israel understands the role the United States plays in supporting its war plan against Gaza. Therefore, Israel has employed diverse strategies to secure backing from allied groups within American society, including entities such as The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), while also utilizing mass media channels. Further, Netanyahu's government is focused on influencing the U.S. political landscape, particularly in light of adverse public perceptions regarding the ongoing conflict in Gaza. It is common knowledge that Netanyahu wields more influence within Republican circles than among Democrats. While the Biden administration has encountered some resistance to its support of Israel,  the majority of the Republican party has unwaveringly supported Israel.

Hence, Israel's political strategy revolves around maintaining the support of the present administration, anticipating a subsequent administration aligned with their ideological stance, and ultimately securing an unswerving endorsement of Netanyahu's actions. In this case, Netanyahu and its coalition are looking for a second Trump administration in 2025. 

Hamas: The Evolver

The other stakeholder is Hamas, which has governed the Gaza Strip for almost two decades. On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a successful terrorist attack against the state of Israel. In the previous months before the attack, the interaction between Hamas and the state of Israel was minimal, with sporadic cases of violence. However, it was evident before the attack that the right-wing government of Israel had escalated pressure on Gaza and its citizens. Many analysts believe that the years of blockade against Gaza have increased dissatisfaction among Palestinians in Gaza, particularly with Hamas' rule. According to an article by Mark Green titled "Gazans' Pre-War Views of Hamas," published on the website of the Wilson Center, a survey conducted by the non-partisan research group Arab Barometer revealed that 44% of Gazans had no trust at all, 23% had "not a lot of trust," and only 29% expressed great trust in their government before the war (November 28, 2023). After the attack of October 7, 2023, support for Hamas and its actions increased in Gaza. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research conducted poll research between November 22, 2023, and December 2, 2023, in Gaza and the West Bank and found that 72% of the public believed that Hamas's decision to launch the October 7 attack was correct. 

The same study highlighted that 53% of Palestinians interviewed believed that Israel's war objective is to destroy the Gaza Strip and kill or expel its residents. Another study conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research between May and June of the same year revealed that more than 60% of Gazans report having lost family members in the current war on Gaza, yet two-thirds of the public continue to support the October 7 attack, with 80% believing it put the Palestinian issue at the center of global attention (https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/980.). Despite the destruction caused by the state of Israel in Gaza, the determination of the Palestinian people is apparent in bringing to the forefront of international public opinion the dire socioeconomic conditions they faced due to the actions of the state of Israel even before the attack of October 7. 

In this situation, Hamas' strategy might appear counterproductive in the short term as it could provoke a strong response from Israel, as it did. Nevertheless, it is a strategic move in the long term to bring the matter to the international community's attention. Another goal of Hamas is to break free from the isolation imposed by major players, including the United States and Israel. To counter this, Hamas has implemented a comprehensive media strategy to shape the perception of the organization and Gaza amid the ongoing conflict. Like the Anti-War Movement and Prime Minister Netanyahu, Hamas is pursuing a political strategy to influence not only American public opinion but also to exert pressure on the U.S. presidential election. To achieve this, Hamas has supported protests worldwide, particularly in the United States, as statements from senior Hamas officials when the crackdown of protests in the US occurred in the early stages” (O’Connor, T., 2024, April 26).

While Hamas and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank acknowledge the strong support for Israel from the U.S. political establishment, as evidenced by public statements from President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, they also recognize that a Republican administration like Trump's would seek to isolate Hamas further and take a harsh stance against the organization. This view is also shared by Hamas' ally, Iran, which directly experienced the so-called maximum pressure strategy developed by the Trump administration. Essentially, although not explicitly stated, the outcome of the November election may shape the next phase of global relations. While the stakeholders mentioned above are crucial players, there are other actors who could potentially impact the current conflict in Gaza. Russia, Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, and India possess international leverage to influence the conflict, but they have thus far opted to play a minimal role. Notably, China's foreign minister recently facilitated a meeting where the various political factions within Palestinian society agreed to cooperate..

Conclusion

In conclusion, in the aftermath of the Hamas terrorist attack and subsequent disproportionate response from Israel, Gaza has seen a devastating loss of over 39,000 lives, predominantly civilians. It has led to a diverse range of strategies and tactics being employed by various stakeholders involved in the conflict. Despite their differing interests and ultimate goals, each stakeholder has sought to shape American public opinion in anticipation of the upcoming U.S. election in November. It is evident that Israel's ability to sustain the conflict hinges on substantial American financial, military, and political support. Meanwhile, Palestinian families are enduring severe hardships, including scarcity of food, water, and shelter, while living in constant fear for their safety or fearing the death of their loved ones at any moment. It's crucial for the international community to recognize this perspective in order to avoid repeating past mistakes.

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Virgilio O Aran is a Labor and Policy Organizer. He graduated from Hunter College and Cornell University.

REFERENCES

Green, M. A. (2023, November 28). Gazans’ pre-war views of Hamas. Wilson Center. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/gazans-pre-war-views-hamas . The latest date article revised: July 19, 2024

Masters, J., & Merrow, W. (2024, May 31). U.S. aid to Israel in four charts. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/article/us-aid-israel-four-charts#:~:text=Since%20the%20start%20of%20Israel’s,appropriations%20act%20in%20April%202024. 

O’Connor, T. (2024, April 26). Hamas slams US crackdown on pro-Palestinian college protests. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/hamas-slams-us-crackdown-pro-palestinian-college-protests-1893962 

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. (2023, December 13). Public opinion poll no (90). PCPSR. https://pcpsr.org/en/node/963.   This poll was conducted between November 22 and December 2, 2023, in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Ramallah and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. (2024a, June 12). Press release: Public opinion poll no (92). PCPSR. https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/980. This poll was conducted between May 26, 2024, and June 1, 2024, in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Ramallah and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Reuters. (2024, July 25). Explainer: Gaza death toll: How many Palestinians has Israel’s campaign killed? | reuters. Explainer: Gaza death toll: how many Palestinians has Israel’s campaign killed? https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-death-toll-how-many-palestinians-has-israels-campaign-killed-2024-07-25/ 

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DISCLAIMER; The author's opinions and ideas are his own, and not necessarily those of Esendom.

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Empowering Civic Society via Real Democratic Institutions, Not Foreign Interventions, is the Long-Term Solution to Haiti's Socioeconomic Crisis

By Virgilio Oscar Aran

If external interventions had successfully resolved Haiti's political issues, it would have become one of the most politically steady nations in the Western Hemisphere. However, since 1915, Haiti has been plagued by direct and indirect interventions designed to "pacify" the country.  These interventions have played a role in maintaining a system that allows for the exploitation of the Haitian people by suppressing their desire for democratic institutions that work for the greater good rather than just for a small group of elites.  Therefore, it is imperative to empower civil society and establish a socioeconomic system that represents the interests of the working class to foster political stability in the long run in a country marred by instability.

In 1915, the U.S. intervened in Haiti, which had dire long-term consequences for Haitian society.  The arrival to power of the Duvalier dynasty in Haiti and the direct support of foreign governments to the regime of Papa Doc and Baby Doc based on the Cold War logic would cement the country's instability in the long run. While it is true that during the Duvalier regime, people had a sense of security (of course, security and oppression go hand in hand with dictatorship), the state became the family business of the Duvalier and its inner circle, including a segment of the economic elite. If the Duvalier dynasty (dictatorship) personified the state, the fall of that dynasty in the late "eighties" would be the fall of the state as it was known. When Baby Doc, the son of Jean-Claude Duvalier (Papa Doc), who succeeded his father, left the country, he left a devastated country that his family pillaged for over three decades. Foreign governments like the United States of America supported those crimes. In other words, they were partners in crime with the Duvalier regime. 

The 1990s brought hope of change with Jean-Bertrand Aristide, the first democratically elected president.  However, the hope of democracy was short-lived in Haiti. In 1991, Aristide was illegally overthrown by the military led by Raoul Cédras, who was promoted in June of that year by Aristide, as had happened in Chile with Allende 18 years prior. As it happened in Chile, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was involved in the process of ending the short-lived democratic process in Haiti. It is essential to emphasize that high members of the National Intelligence Service (SIN) received funding from the U.S. government, including the CIA, and they were directly involved in the coup against Aristide. By 1994, Aristide returned to Haiti with the help of mass mobilization and the support of the Clinton Administration. My father called it a coalition of contradictions in which the more powerful, the U.S., would ask for payments later. By the sunset of the nineties and the dawn of the new millennium, a sign of hope is in the future, and again at the hand of Aristide. Like in 1990, ten years after, in 2000, Aristide was elected president. 

It is as if history is repeating itself. 

For me, if history was repeating itself, another coup d’état was on the horizon. By September 2001, New York City suffered a terrorist attack, and Aristide was in power. For me, it was karma for what happened ten years ago. In 2002, Aristide continued in power, and it looked like he could finish his term without being overthrown from power or shortened, as it happened when he arrived in 1994 from exile. However, the political landscape, division, internal fight, and external influence would lead to the second overthrow of Aristide in 2004. By the middle of 2004, Aristide and his family were leaving Haiti for exile. Ten years before, Aristide arrived in Haiti from exile as a hero, thanks to what my father called the ‘Coalition of contradictions’. Aristide denounced that behind the coup was the hand of the United States. This episode in the history of Haiti looks more like a Greek Tragedy. However, it was not a Greek tragedy but the result of years of intervention that had dire consequences for the Haitian population. Like in the nineties the overthrow of Aristide was followed by chaos and a foreign intervention under the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti, known as the MINUSTAH. It was a facade where the U.N. and some countries like Brazil served as tools to invade or, as they used in the past, pacify Haiti. 

“As with other foreign interventions, the MINUSTAH did not bring structural changes to improve the socioeconomic conditions of the Haitian people. ”

As with other foreign interventions, the MINUSTAH did not bring structural changes to improve the socioeconomic conditions of the Haitian people. The goal of the force was to contain the potential mass migration of Haitians due to the economic calamity of the country and to ensure the neocolonial system that facilitates the exploitation of the people. The MINUSTAH also helped to highlight the type of impunity the invaded forces enjoyed in the country they invaded, as it was the epidemic of cholera that hit Haiti during this tragic period of intervention.

During the year of the MINUSTAH in Haiti, another phenomenon was happening: the increased role of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Haiti. This phenomenon began earlier in the last years of the nineties.

While Evangelical groups or Christian groups were not a new phenomenon, by the beginning of the new millennium, NGOs began to supplant some of the critical roles of the Haitian state, which was very weak due to the political instability and the neoliberal policies. Many of the NGOs, (employees want to help) were disconnected from the reality of the people. It took little time to understand the pernicious role of the NGOs in the process of dismantling the Haitian state. When I saw the number of NGOs on my trip in 2004, it was like reading a book about colonial times. In other words, Haiti was invaded not just by troops represented by the MINUSTAH but also by NGOs. The political and economic crisis continued due to structural problems.  

As the colonial elite did during colonial time, the local elite continued extracting resources from Haiti and lived comfortable lives, always having their fortunes outside Haiti in case of a social explosion.  For the economic elite, the question was not if the social explosion would happen but when. The presence of the MINUSTAH just helped to maintain short-term stability with that facade of "elections" to support the system of exploitation. However, chaos was imminent, and the root causes of the socioeconomic instability were never addressed. By the beginning of 2020, the voices of opposition against the former president, Jovenel Moïse, were increasing, but he was reluctant to listen or to call for elections.

On July 7, 2021, the president of Haiti, Jovenel Moïse, was assassinated in Hollywood style by a commando of foreign mercenaries, mainly from Colombia, but hired by Haitians connected to the political and economic system. The assassination of Moïse exacerbated the political turmoil. Part of the civil society called for an actual election, but by the end of July, Ariel Henry was sworn in as the new leader of Haiti. Ariel Henry responded to foreign interests and the interests of a segment of the elite but did not call for a democratic election. On the contrary, he had been deaf ears to the plight of civil society.  

“With the disintegration of the Haitian state, a new phenomenon emerged: the paramilitary groups known as gangs.”

With the disintegration of the Haitian state, a new phenomenon emerged: the paramilitary groups known as gangs. These paramilitary groups are very well-armed, and according to the U.S. State Department, some of these groups received money from elite members. The so-called gangs, which are paramilitary groups, have been terrorizing the population. The political situation was deteriorating for President Henry, and to add to the calamity of Ariel Henry, the Notorious coup leader Guy Philippe of 2004 returned to Haiti from a long vacation in an American prison; Philippe was unexpected.  

The beginning of the new year did not mean erasing Haiti's structural problems. Otherwise, in 2024, the crisis will worsen, as we are seeing today. Different factors have created this reality, such as the capital flight from Haiti by the elite and the disappearing middle class. Another factor is the flight of human capital, including the working and middle classes—the increase of attacks by the so-called gangs or terrorist groups on the civil population and the authority. By the beginning of March 2024, Ariel Henry’s luck  ran out; when the prime minister was on a foreign trip, the groups opposing him took power. While many factions are opposing the Henry government, considered by many an illegitimate government, the groups of the opposition that have capitalized on this crisis are those very well-armed: the gangs. 

Today, Haiti is one of the worst crises in its history, especially since 1915, when the United States invaded Haiti. The progressive collapse of the state is no longer an academic analysis but a reality with real consequences for the Haitian population. 

For some, especially the elite, a traditional foreign intervention is the most precise solution to Haitian problems, if that intervention stabilizes the system of oppression and extraction that has allowed them to build a large fortune in the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere.  For others, a segment of the population, security, and the well-being of their families are what they seek. Many are open to foreign intervention if it can bring stability and security. Another segment opposes a foreign intervention. This segment is divided ideologically and by interests. For example, the left and civic and labor organizations see foreign intervention as a tool to keep the same "comprador elite" in power. The other faction inside this group perceives a foreign intervention as a way of diminishing the power they have gained in the last years.These groups are mainly represented or associated with armed groups. It is challenging, given the complexity of what will happen in the coming months.

The situation in Haiti is dire and may have a ripple effect on neighboring nations. Nevertheless, past events demonstrate that relying on foreign intervention is unlikely to resolve current or historical crises in Haiti. Instead, a more effective approach would be to develop a robust economic and social system that enables complete socioeconomic mobility and strengthens civic society. It is vital to remember that foreign intervention has previously contributed to the current crisis.

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Virgilio Oscar Aran is a Labor and Policy organizer. He holds a degree in political science from Hunter College and a master’s in labor from the School of Labor and Urban Study at Cornell University/The Workers Institute.